31 August 2019
Gladys Berejiklian has little room to move. Just months ago, she won a general election in New South Wales, but not by much. But it could’ve been worse.
She governs with a two-seat majority in the Lower House of State Parliament, meaning that it takes only a few people to hand a change of mind or disagree with her for her majority to be at risk, even if only temporarily.
But before the election, when she had a fairly comfortable majority, there were predictions that she’d lose that, if not lose the election altogether. The ultimate result was a win with a narrow majority. She therefore survived as Premier.
Since the election, though, things haven’t been exactly great for her. The Liberal Party, which she’s led since early 2017, is divided over some issues. Given that Liberals have the freedom to cross the floor in Parliament to vote against their party if they see fit, anybody crossing the floor could unsettle things.
Also, the Liberals are at odds with the Nationals on other issues. Their formal partnership might seem a little unsettled after noises from John Barilaro, who leads the Nationals and is also Deputy Premier. With the Nationals recently losing seats to minor players, Barilaro has made suggestions that he’d surrender the job of Deputy Premier if he can’t agree with the Liberals on issues troubling people in the bush. As such, Berejiklian has her hands full.
The only saving grace for Berejiklian and the Liberal-National Coalition is that little competition seems forthcoming from their traditional rivals.
It helps the Coalition to see the Labor Party in poor shape nowadays. Following defeats at both the NSW election in March and a Federal election in May, Labor definitely has problems of its own. The Federal election in particular was awful for Labor, which lost in spite of predictions of victory in most opinion polls.
Despite the Coalition’s narrow majority in NSW, Labor isn’t positioned to take advantage of this. One reason relates to numbers in the Lower House.
The March election saw the Coalition win 48 of 93 Lower House seats, as Labor came away with 36 seats. Now led by Jodi McKay, Labor requires 11 extra seats for victory. McKay has quite a mountain to climb.
This somehow reminds me of a similar gap in numbers between the Coalition and Labor after a general election in 1988. Back then, there were 109 Lower House seats, with the Coalition holding 59 and Labor holding 43. The Coalition didn’t have a big majority, but it probably appeared bigger than it was, because the Coalition was returning to office for the first time since 1976.
Both in 1988 and today, there are plenty of crossbenchers in the Lower House, and a big crossbench naturally makes things harder for the Opposition.
The Coalition in 1988 had a majority of only five Lower House seats, with seven crossbenchers. Now it has a majority of two seats, with nine crossbenchers.
Having a handful of crossbenchers would be troubling enough for the Opposition Leader. But having nine of them to deal with makes McKay’s job harder.
If McKay can take comfort from anything, it might be what Bob Carr achieved after becoming Labor leader in the wake of the 1988 election. Critics believed that Carr never looked like a leader. But three years later, Carr came incredibly close to winning an election, and he managed to do the job in 1995, beginning what’d be ten years as Premier. Looking like something less than a good leader and having a big crossbench to deal with didn’t exactly hinder Carr.
At this early stage, I’m not sure that McKay looks like a good leader, but several years will pass before NSW goes to the polls, so she’s got time.
With a big crossbench of nine in the Lower House, these numbers will certainly be hurting McKay for the time being. Labor is also having plenty of difficulties after two election defeats, even without an inflated crossbench.
How McKay fares will remain to be seen. History is full of politicians arguably taking on leadership reluctantly, and going on to win one election after another, sometimes against the odds. McKay has to be seen keeping Berejiklian honest, and time might pass before McKay shows whether she has the goods.
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