History in Berejiklian’s victory

27 April 2019

 

The Liberal-National Coalition in New South Wales might’ve been fearing some sort of caning a month ago.  Voters then went to the polls for a general election, in which the Coalition was rather unpopular, even without competition really inspiring the voters to look elsewhere in a big way.  In the end, the Coalition copped a slap rather than a caning, and survived the election narrowly.

The previous NSW election, in 2015, had the Coalition governing with a comfortable majority, with 54 seats out of 93 available in the Lower House, where governments are formed.  A couple of by-election losses trimmed the Coalition numbers to 52 by the time of last month’s election.

The Labor Party, trying to return to office after an enormous election defeat in 2011, didn’t really do enough to inspire voters.  Leadership trouble before the end of last year, in which Michael Daley replaced Luke Foley after a scandal broke over some drunken behaviour, wouldn’t have helped Labor.  Daley was initially making some inroads as Opposition Leader, but ultimately he came up short.

After opinion polls largely tipped the Coalition to lose its parliamentary majority, the Coalition narrowly held office at last month’s election, winning 48 seats, while Labor won 36 – not much of an improvement from 34 won in 2015.

For the Coalition, and Premier Gladys Berejiklian especially, the election brought some noteworthy results.  After winning office in 2011 and then holding it in 2015, this marked the first time that the NSW Coalition had won three straight elections since 1971.  And Berejiklian became the first female Premier to win an election in NSW history.  She might’ve been somewhat lucky in taking over from Mike Baird, who won the 2015 election and probably surprised people when he suddenly quit the top job in 2017, but she still managed to do what no woman did before her.

Going into the election, the NSW economy was in pretty good shape, and there was much infrastructure being built, especially in Sydney, which was generally regarded as a good sign.  But the Coalition had been troubled because of some controversies, including over questionable transport projects which cost many people their homes and businesses, and perceptions of arrogance and extravagance over the rebuilding of some sporting stadiums around Sydney.  As such, the Coalition looked vulnerable when the election loomed, especially after a few by-election losses.

But Labor didn’t really have much chance, despite a bit of lift after Daley became leader.  He played hard on the perceived waste in spending on new stadiums, but this ultimately made little difference.  Worse still, although the Coalition suffered some losses, both before and at the election, Labor didn’t really gain from them.

In terms of my predictions for the election, I was wrong on many counts.  I tipped the Coalition to lose a number of seats to Labor, but only two fell, namely Coogee and Lismore.  The Coalition managed to hold East Hills, Goulburn, Monaro, Penrith, Tweed, and Upper Hunter – all of which I’d tipped to fall.

One of the Coalition’s by-election losses, Wagga Wagga, stayed with the Independent who’d won it in 2018, as I’d predicted.  Two other Independents from 2015, in Lake Macquarie and Sydney, held their seats.  Also, the Greens were holding three seats going into the election – I predicted them to hold them all, and they did.

But I was predicting the Coalition to reverse its other by-election loss, Orange, taken by a party representing shooters and fishers and farmers in 2016.  In the end, that party held Orange, and it also took two other Coalition seats in rural NSW, namely Barwon and Murray – I’d predicted Barwon to fall, but not Murray.

That party also won a seat in the Upper House, where various minor parties were expected to win seats, out of twenty-one available.  Here the Coalition took eight seats and Labor took seven, while the Greens took two.  Although the well-known Senator Pauline Hanson wasn’t contesting, her party took two seats.  The Christian Democrats had Paul Green facing the voters, but he lost his seat, which the Animal Justice Party won a seat.  A former Green in the Upper House, Jeremy Buckingham, was also defeated.  Although the Coalition won the election overall, it didn’t obtain control of the Upper House, and will need crossbench support to pass laws there.

The Coalition therefore comes out of last month’s election in NSW with some scars, but not as many as predicted before the election.  There was a decent swing against the Coalition, but it went in several directions, and Labor didn’t really benefit from that swing.  As mentioned before, there’s a little bit of history in Berejiklian’s close victory, and it deserves to be noted.  The Coalition can breathe easier in NSW now.

 

Two bad leaders and a tycoon

21 April 2019

 

Relatively few voters across Australia look forward to a Federal election with little or no reason to support the leaders vying to become Prime Minister.  The person currently in the job is unpopular, but so is the person seeking the job.  Meanwhile, a wealthy tycoon spends a massive fortune on commercials to persuade unhappy voters to support his own political party.

Actually, I’m being cheeky here!  This isn’t a description of a Federal election just about upon Australians – though it could well be.

The above description refers to an election in 2013, which was the election before last.  The players back then might well be different from now, but the story really sounds like what it is now.  The only player from 2013 definitely back now is the wealthy tycoon, Clive Palmer, whose party has been in commercials on television and on radio and in newspapers for many months.

Back in 2013, the Prime Minister and the Opposition Leader were both unpopular, to the point where they almost made voters have another look at the alternative leader.  Also, the PM at the start of 2013 was different from the PM who contested the election that year, and ultimately lost.

Before then, the Labor Party had won office in 2007, and Kevin Rudd was hugely popular as Prime Minister for more than two years.  But in 2010, Rudd chickened out of pursuing an environmental policy intended to reduce pollution and tackle climate change, and his popularity went into massive freefall.  In June that year, Labor MPs suddenly dumped Rudd in a surprise coup, and Julia Gillard became Prime Minister.  Because voters were never really told why the coup was thought necessary in the eyes of Labor MPs, they revolted at an election just months later.

Rudd’s backdown on tackling climate change resulted from a big scare campaign conducted by Opposition Leader Tony Abbott – one of the most unpopular political figures in Australian history.  Abbott argued that Rudd’s environmental policies equated to a “new tax on everything”, and spooked Rudd into backing down.

After Rudd was dumped in favour of Gillard, Labor lost its majority at an election, surviving only with the help of crossbench MPs holding the balance of power.

Abbott and his supporters never accepted the legitimacy of this result, and they tried whatever they could to either trigger new elections or force the crossbench MPs to tip Labor out of office.  Despite Abbott’s best efforts, Labor somehow made it to 2013, when the next election was due.

Indeed Abbott stooped to major lows in terms of tactics and behaviour through those years as Opposition Leader – from addressing a protest rally with placards showing offensive language against the PM, to gleefully rising in Parliament and repeating a disgusting slur made against the PM’s late father.

Such awful behaviour, under the circumstances, should’ve disqualified Abbott from any chance to be PM.  But he got there, largely because Labor had an endless leadership squabble involving Rudd and Gillard which rendered it unelectable.

In June 2013, Labor MPs reluctantly restored Rudd to the leadership, and Gillard retired from politics.  But Rudd’s restoration ultimately didn’t stop Abbott from becoming PM, despite Abbott’s own unpopularity with voters.

Meanwhile, sensing that voters were disillusioned with Labor and Abbott, from almost out of nowhere came a political party, set up by Palmer, whose massive wealth enabled it to run ads during the election campaign – an option normally too costly for minor parties in general.  Palmer banked on the idea that voters, unhappy with the major political leaders but hardly able or willing to look that closely for alternatives, would go to the polling booths at election time recalling only him as neither Labor nor Abbott, and vote for his party.

To some extent, Palmer’s efforts succeeded.  His party won enough voters across several states to win three Senate seats.  Palmer himself only just won a Lower House seat as well.  But after getting into Federal Parliament, his party imploded and he walked away when the next election came, in 2016.

Meanwhile, after Abbott became PM, he remained immensely unpopular among voters, and he lost the leadership to Malcolm Turnbull, who was initially quite popular.  But Turnbull became weak when many of his MPs opposed his beliefs regarding various issues, including climate change.  Turnbull only won the 2016 election, and his enemies circled until, in August 2018, they were able to get him dumped.  Scott Morrison ended up becoming PM as a result.

Because Turnbull was considered popular, Morrison and the Liberal-National Coalition have since struggled to be popular with voters, even though Opposition Leader Bill Shorten has also been unpopular.  But Shorten looks like he’ll triumph at the next election, because of voter anger over Turnbull’s dumping.

And again, Palmer lurks in the background, returning with a new party to contest the election.  He’s also been able to run ads for months, at some expense.

Voters wouldn’t have been keen in 2013 to face an election with two bad leaders and a tycoon to choose from, notwithstanding other alternatives.  But they now face going through 2013 all over again when they head to the booths soon.