Liberal seat climate changing

18 November 2019

 

Comparatively few people across Australia would be missing Tony Abbott.  Six months ago, while voters were using a Federal election to grant a third term in power to the Liberal Party, which he’d once led, he was in the process of losing his seat.  One of the most divisive characters in Australian political history, he generated strong reactions everywhere with his views on many issues, so when he lost his seat, there were celebrations everywhere.

Of course, those celebrating his defeat were distraught to be seeing the Liberals win an election which, in the minds of many, they should’ve lost.  After problems with leadership over time, and presumptions of dithering over various issues, they were rated no chance of winning the election.  But under Scott Morrison, who become Liberal leader and Prime Minister the previous August, they pulled off what Morrison described as a miracle.  Some Liberal policies were thought poisonous to many voters, and wrong in the minds of others – in the case of the latter, they were almost itching to see the Liberals lose office.  When that never came about, there was shock and anger across the country.

Some of the leadership trouble afflicting the Liberals revolved around Abbott, who had the job for many years but was never popular among voters.  Although he led the Liberals to an election win in 2013, it was more to do with the great unpopularity of his opponents, who were tearing themselves apart.  He usually came across as a bully, rather than a persuader, and his unpopularity ultimately prompted Liberal MPs to dump him and turn to Malcolm Turnbull in September 2015.  Turnbull only just held office at an election in 2016, and two years later, with Turnbull also turning out to be unpopular, he too was dumped as Liberal leader, with Morrison getting the job.  Throughout that time, Abbott was often considered a key figure in the disquiet about Turnbull.

With an election due this year, environmental issues like climate change were thought likely to cost the Liberals victory.  They’d been torn over tackling climate change for roughly a decade, particularly as pollution from industry and power generation were blamed for this.  Some of them believed in taking action, while others argued that climate change didn’t even exist.

There were arguments about what tackling climate change would cost.  Things like higher electricity prices, if they occurred, were perceived to be far too much for voters to tolerate.  Many Liberals still seem to bicker over this now.

But voters were increasingly believing climate change to be serious as an issue, though they were arguably divided over how to deal with it.  They saw droughts and water restrictions, which impacted how they cared for their cars and their gardens, as things resulting from climate change.  Ultimately, however, at this year’s election, enough of them were so uneasy that the Liberals won.

That said, the unseating of Abbott was part of that concern about climate change, which Abbott didn’t believe to even exist.  Voters in his seat of Warringah, lying in an affluent region in northern Sydney, were arguably among those prepared to bear any cost to tackle climate change.  The Liberals hold seats in areas with similar affluence, and it was pointed out that in many seats there were swings against the Liberals, perhaps for this reason.

But it’s important to remember that, if not for the presence of an Independent candidate of some standing, Abbott would still be in Parliament now.  Whatever voters in his seat thought of him, they could never bring themselves to support the Labor Party.  Only an Independent candidate with some sort of profile had any chance of winning his seat.

In affluent areas, Labor is generally perceived as anti-wealth and anti-affluence, so voters can’t abide them, regardless of how they feel about the Liberals.

Indeed last year, when Turnbull resigned from Parliament after being dumped from the Liberal leadership, his seat of Wentworth, also located in an affluent area, fell to an Independent at a by-election.  The Liberals regained Wentworth at this year’s election, but a point might’ve been made at the by-election.

There were decent swings against the Liberals in other affluent seats, including North Sydney and Goldstein and Higgins and Kooyong, in this year’s election.

Voters in those seats clearly weren’t happy with perceived inaction on climate change by the Liberals.  While there might’ve been other issues, climate change was probably the major issue.  The Liberals could count themselves lucky that those seats were safe enough to avoid changing hands.  Although Abbott’s seat fell, it wouldn’t have happened without a popular Independent challenger.

Only the seat of Higgins, in southern Melbourne, is now deemed marginal, with Labor needing a swing of about 3-4 per cent to take it.

These results might represent a Liberal seat climate changing.  As such, Liberal people would be uneasy, even though they’re not vulnerable to loss yet.  Future elections might see more Liberal seats in affluent areas change with the climate.

 

Whelan unseated but unbeaten

16 November 2019

 

The death last month of Paul Whelan might stir up memories of a better period for the Labor Party, especially in New South Wales.  Elected to State Parliament in 1976, he was there until retiring in 2003, and he was a minister for a number of years.  His time there was during what was largely a Labor era.

It was in 1976 that Labor won office in NSW, albeit narrowly.  In a close election result, Premier Sir Eric Willis eventually conceded defeat to Opposition Leader Neville Wran many days after the poll.  Wran would be Premier for ten years, before stepping down from the job in 1986.  Labor lost office at an election in 1988, after which Bob Carr obtained the leadership, and he almost got a surprise election win in 1991 before ultimately winning an election in 1995.  Like Wran before him, he won office narrowly, and would be Premier for ten years.

Whelan was part of Labor’s success, at least as a local MP.  He was among several Labor candidates to gain seats in 1976, though many more would follow as Wran had big election wins in 1978 and 1981.  Wran’s fortunes began to wade as some seats fell at an election in 1984, though his majority was still reasonable.  Labor suffered many seat losses when thrown out of office in 1988, but Whelan was able to hold his seat, Ashfield, in inner western Sydney.

After a big loss, Labor wasn’t considered likely to win the next election, which was due in early 1992.  But Premier Nick Greiner saw fit to go to the polls early, in May 1991 – and he ended up losing his majority, meaning that he could only govern with the support of crossbench MPs.  Labor leader Carr was definitely underestimated, coming very close to victory from a very weak position.  Four years later, Carr was able to win an election narrowly, and he went on to have big election wins in 1999 and 2003, before stepping down in 2005.  And Whelan was a minister in the Carr Government for much of that time.

Whelan had held Ashfield in 1988 while many Labor colleagues lost their seats, seven ministers among them.  Given that Labor was on those nose with voters around that time, with some safe seats lost in that 1988 election, Whelan might well have been a good local member to retain his seat.  Indeed after over two decades of following elections, I’ve lost count of how often I’ve seen politicians hold seats in the face of massive voter revolts against their parties.

After Labor’s 1988 election loss, Whelan survived eight years in the wilderness before Labor returned to office.  He became a minister after that victory, before calling time on politics in 2003, when Carr won his third election.  Meanwhile, after Carr departed in 2005, Labor began to implode, and lost office in a huge way in 2011.  It’s lost two more elections since then.

Before retiring, Whelan had arguably his only electoral “loss”.  He didn’t actually lose a seat at election time – he lost it in an electoral redistribution.  But he was able to run for another seat and win it.

Electoral redistributions take place usually every ten years or so, due to changes in population over time, so as to ensure as near as possible to the same number of voters in each electorate.  Population naturally changes over time, increasing in some areas and decreasing in others – often it’s a case of growth in big cities and decline in rural areas.  So with some electorates gaining lots of new voters gradually while other electorates lose lots of voters, redistributions are required to even out the voter numbers as best as possible.

When redistributions happen, seats can become more safe or less safe for parties holding them, or they can be abolished altogether, while new seats can emerge.

In the case of Whelan, a redistribution occurred in NSW before the 1999 election, and his seat of Ashfield was abolished.  I could say that he was perhaps unseated, albeit outside election time.  For the 1999 election, he ran for nearby Strathfield, and defeated a rival MP, Bruce MacCarthy, to win it.

As a result of the events leading up to the 1999 election, he was perhaps unseated but unbeaten, given that he managed to switch seats.  After moving to Strathfield, he held it for one term before calling time on his parliamentary career.  He was in State Parliament for around twenty-seven years.

Labor people might remember Whelan initially as one of those figures to make Wran’s 1976 election win possible.  That win was also a tonic for Labor, following a massive Federal election defeat the previous year.  But Whelan worked hard, holding his seat through Labor’s hard times and then becoming a minister after Labor returned to office.  His passing stirs memories of a Labor era which seems remote when compared to where Labor stands now.