Hanging looms in NSW

25 March 2023

Voters in New South Wales may know tonight whether they have the same person as Premier, or someone different.  During the past week, votes have been cast everywhere in a State election which sees the Coalition trying to win a fourth straight term in power and the Labor Party trying to return to power for the first time since early 2011. While opinion polls suggest that the latter is more likely, it could possibly go either way.

Certainly the odds don’t favour the Coalition Government, which took power in a big election victory in 2011 and won two more elections after that.  Governments usually struggle to win three terms in power, never mind four, so there’s already a disadvantage for the Coalition.  It’s just lucky that voters still doubt Labor as an alternative.

Apart from looking less than inspiring, at a time when voters often feel more inclined to change, Labor faces another difficult hurdle.  With a large crossbench, made up of the Greens and several Independents, Labor effectively needs to pick up two seats for every seat that the Coalition loses.

For this reason, many observers and opinion polls suggest that the NSW election result won’t be clear tonight.  At the last election in 2019, the Coalition held power with only a narrow majority, but since then, the Coalition’s been governing only with crossbench support, after scandals put two of its MPs into exiled, while another of its seats, Bega, fell to Labor in a by-election last year.  And it’s possible that there’ll still be no winner for some time yet.

In 2019, the Coalition won 48 of 93 seats, while Labor won 36.  A mix of Greens and others won the rest.

Since then, apart from losing two MPs and the seat of Bega to Labor in a by-election last year, another Coalition seat has notionally changed hands, following an electoral redistribution.  Usually taking place every ten years or so, due to population changes around the State, electoral redistributions at times make seats notionally change hands, so a marginal Coalition seat can lose a Coalition-leaning areas and gain a Labor-leaning areas, to become notionally Labor-held.  The Coalition-held seat of Heathcote, located on Sydney’s southern fringe, is like that now.

The Coalition has also endured leadership changes since every election.  The respective winners of elections in 2011 and 2015 and 2019, Barry O’Farrell and Mike Baird and Gladys Berejiklian, have failed to complete their terms.  Both O’Farrell and Berejiklian resigned under clouds of corruption investigations.

Before resigning amid a corruption scandal in late 2021, Berejiklian had become very popular as Premier, having led the State through a dark times in living memory, when Australia was caught up in a coronavirus outbreak spreading from overseas, followed by a subsequent pandemic, during which people were obliged to keep away from each other in order to prevent this virus from spreading.  Berejiklian received much praise for the Government’s efforts in tracing sources of smaller outbreaks and alerting people to possible infections.  After her resignation, Dominic Perrottet became Premier.

Although perceived as a religious hardliner with a firm faith in Catholicism, Perrottet has turned out to be more popular than people expected.  While Perrottet is very proud of his Catholic heritage, not once has he ever really foisted it upon people, to the point of putting them off.

As such, if he manages to retain power after this election, however unlikely that seems, it’ll certainly be down to him more than anyone else.  But following twelve long years of Coalition governance, and some doubt over the suitability of building construction and infrastructure projects on which the Coalition has spent many billions of dollars, besides scandals involving several Coalition figures, he looks like losing.

As for Labor, it might well take power with crossbench support, as it often does better in getting support from crossbenchers than the Coalition does.  But realistically it ought to be winning the election, given everything going against the Coalition at the present time.  The Coalition’s ability to somehow still be competitive says a lot.

Various opinion polls show a swing of at least 4-5 per cent to Labor here. This would not be enough for a Labor majority. But often local factors make things different.

In terms of seats, I’m tipping the Coalition to take back Drummoyne and Murray from the crossbench, but to lose other seats.

I predict the Coalition to lose East Hills, Holsworthy, Parramatta, Penrith, Riverstone, Ryde, and Winston Hills to Labor. Also I predict Independents to take out Pittwater, Wakehurst, and Wollondilly from the Coalition. Other results will be close.

Labor should also hold its by-election gain of Bega and its notional gain of Heathcote.

These results suggest that an election hanging looms in NSW. In this case, I imagine Labor to ultimately take power. But the final outcome might be slow to emerge.

Labor’s treasured son with four election wins

13 March 2023

Despite the passage of decades, hardly any supporters of the Labor Party would or could forget Bob Hawke. And this month marks a special anniversary regarding this man.

He is the only Labor leader to win four Federal elections in Australian political history. In fact, not many Labor leaders have won two Federal elections – the most recent of these being Gough Whitlam.

Some Labor leaders have contested Federal elections at least twice without winning, whereas most Labor leaders managed to win only one Federal election before losing the next one, or even losing the leadership. Paul Keating and Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard belong in this category, as do most Labor leaders since Federation in 1901. These facts have much to do with why Hawke, who passed away a few years ago, can be rightly described as Labor’s treasured son.

And this month marks forty years since Hawke became Prime Minister. It was back in March 1983 when his time in the top job began. He would remain there until losing the leadership in 1991, with four election wins to his credit. After the 1983 win, the other wins came in 1984 and 1987 and 1990.

Formerly a popular figure outside Parliament, and well known as president of the Australian Council of Trade Unions, Hawke was often talked of as a future PM. Indeed there was a major push for him to enter Parliament after Labor suffered a humiliating election loss in 1975. He eventually went into Parliament at an election in 1980, winning the northern Melbourne seat of Wills, upon the departure of former Whitlam Government minister Gordon Bryant. That particular election, although equating to a third election for incumbent PM Malcolm Fraser, saw a decent swing to Labor.

In the years following that election result, both Fraser and Labor leader Bill Hayden faced leadership challenges. Some argue that, almost immediately after entering Parliament, Hawke stalked Hayden for the Labor leadership. Hayden, who became leader after an election loss in 1977 prompted former PM Whitlam to leave, survived one challenge from Hawke, but he was still stalked. Does that story sound familiar to people?

Before Hawke’s first challenge, Labor had won a by-election for the seat of Lowe, in Sydney’s inner west, following the resignation of former PM Sir William McMahon. Labor had never won the seat previously. But in late 1982, Labor lost a by-election for the seat of Flinders, on Melbourne’s fringe, which it arguably should have won, despite having lost the seat many years earlier. Back then, voters were increasingly disillusioned with the Fraser Government. As such, when the Flinders by-election happened, following the resignation of former minister Sir Phillip Lynch, Labor was expected to win without too much trouble. However, Labor came up short. There were subsequently arguments that Labor strategists deliberately chose a bad candidate for Flinders in order to have a loss, in an attempt to add to the leadership destabilisation surrounding Hayden.

Months after the Flinders loss, and with the push for Hawke continually strengthening, Hayden chose to stand down. He maintained that he was capable of beating Fraser in an election – in fact he argued that a “drover’s dog” was capable of beating Fraser.

On the same day that Labor changed leaders, Fraser called an election. And just weeks later, Hawke went on to defeat Fraser comfortably, winning 75 seats to 50.

As PM, Hawke was very popular for many years. His popularity began to wane over time, but while voters might’ve been tiring of him, not enough of them were inspired to switch to his opponents.

The closest Federal election of that time took place in 1990. A big swing against Labor in Victoria was almost enough to see Hawke lose. But swings to Labor in other areas, especially northern New South Wales and Queensland, enabled him to survive.

The following year, he faced a leadership challenge from Keating, who’d been Treasurer under him since 1983. Keating challenged him once and lost, but had another go before year’s end, and won.

So the career of Labor’s most successful Federal leader came to a close. Labor was gradually losing support among voters, and under Keating it became increasingly unpopular. In spite of this, Keating pulled off an unlikely election victory in 1993 – showing his inestimable political skills.

As for Hawke, he quit Parliament after losing the Labor leadership. A by-election for Wills followed, and amid a lack of voter enthusiasm for the major political parties, an Independent candidate won.

The record of four Federal election wins for a Labor leader still remains with Hawke. Nobody looks like breaking his record for some time yet.

Andrews and the mixed Upper House crossbench

11 March 2023

Relatively few politicians these days might feel smug like Daniel Andrews. Late last year, he won a State election in Victoria – his third in a row since 2014. Governments don’t normally win three straight elections in a row, so his victory was quite an achievement. But it also came in the face of predictions of a big swing against him and the Labor Party. While there was a swing against them in terms of pure votes, they in fact increased their parliamentary majority – so you can understand why they might be smug.

Not many elections have resulted in governments being returned with larger parliamentary majorities while enduring swings against them on votes. You might be able to count on one hand the number of times when votes suggested a swing one way and the seat numbers have gone the opposite way.

Going back to Andrews, who looks set to overtake John Cain and Steve Bracks as the Labor leader to serve as Premier for longer than anyone else in Victorian history, his 2022 election win was truly memorable.

If he missed anything in the election, it was probably regarding the Upper House. Before the election, this chamber had crossbenchers holding the balance of power. The election result there ended up the same.

Andrews was obliged to negotiate with a variety of crossbenchers to get legislation passed – and he remains obliged to negotiate now. But the mixed Upper House crossbench is different from before.

Whereas the Upper House had crossbenchers from numerous parties before, it now doesn’t have that many of them. But Andrews and Labor still need quite a few crossbenchers to support them.

Perhaps the most reliable support for Labor can be expected to come from the Greens, who increased their seat numbers in the Upper House. They’ve always been fairly helpful for Labor. But Labor still requires more than only them for support.

Before the election, several parties had lost Upper House people who either became Independents or went into other parties. But former Labor figure Adem Somyurek was the only one of them to get back in.

Former broadcaster Derryn Hinch, who’d previously been a Senator in Federal Parliament, was successful in setting up his own political party and winning Upper House seats in the previous State election, in late 2018. But in 2022, the party’s seats were all lost. Hinch himself also lost an Upper House seat contest.

Another casualty was Fiona Patten, a former sex worker who went on to be a respected figure in the Upper House. Controversial figure Bernie Finn was also defeated.

A party advocating the legalisation of cannabis managed to win Upper House seats, and a party advocating animal rights lost one Upper House seat but gained another one. I see these parties as most likely to give Labor support to get legislation passed.

There might be others on the mixed Upper House crossbench willing to support Labor, at least on the odd few occasions. But there are crossbenchers that Labor will prefer to avoid. Labor would’ve been offended at the election in rural Victoria of a person affiliated with controversial politician Pauline Hanson. Victoria was never really a State where voters, even in rural areas, warmed to Hanson, so her party’s Upper House seat victory was something of a shock – and it made many urban Victorians really angry.

For the time being, Andrews and Labor can arguably feel smug about getting support from enough Upper House crossbenchers to get legislation passed. While they naturally would’ve preferred an Upper House majority, they might well look at their current crossbench support and say, “That’ll do for now.”

Victorians don’t go to the polls again until 2026. By then, regardless of whether Andrews stays or departs, Labor will seek a fourth straight term in power. Rarely do governments achieve that feat, but I’ve at times seen governments do it – largely because of the inability of their opponents to win voters over. Managing to win three straight terms in power makes Andrews quite an achiever in Victorian political history.