Global election circus continuing

31 January 2021

Voters in Australia can look, with mixed feelings, at elections in other countries, and they should be grateful for what they’ve got. For sure, nobody would really describe Australia’s system of voting as the best anywhere, but who’s got the best? When looking elsewhere, I think to myself, “I’m glad that Australia doesn’t have that.”

In any case, Australia’s elections can be like others in this world, which went somewhat crazy last year after a coronavirus outbreak and a subsequent pandemic. This changed how elections can be conducted, and might well be conducted in future. Increasingly, people will vote early if they can, in order to avoid standing in extraordinarily lengthy queues on election day. But with this change, much stays the same at election time.

Last year, much worldwide focus was on the United States of America, as a presidential election took place there in November. While presidential elections in the US regularly attract worldwide attention, this had more attention than usual. Wealthy loudmouth Donald Trump shocked the world with a win in 2016, and with unusual ways of doing presidential business, Trump made countless people more energetic than ever before, albeit for different reasons.

Trump was either loved or loathed. But those loathing him doubted whether a capable rival could challenge him. His eventual election rival was Joe Biden, who’d previously served as Vice-President. But many rated Biden incapable of a win. Despite the loathing of Trump, Biden didn’t exactly appeal.

On election night, there was no clear result. But Trump was calling himself the winner, even with countless votes to be counted, while Biden patiently waited.

What happened after that was utterly bizarre. As votes were being counted, it looked like Biden was on track to win – though he kept waiting. Meanwhile, Trump proclaimed that the election was being “stolen” from him, and he declared that he’d have various results challenged in court. Nothing ultimately resulted from court challenges.

But with Trump denying defeat, and with two months always passing between election day and the time for swearing in the election winner, I wasn’t willing to describe Trump as beaten until he’d left the White House – the official presidential residence. A deadly rampage by Trump supporters soon took place in the US capital Washington. But with Biden finally declared the election winner, Trump’s violent supporters failed to overturn the result. And there were global sighs of relief when Biden was sworn in as President.

All around the world, people regard the US as championing freedom in voting, whereas lots of countries have unfair “elections”. But the antics of Trump might’ve echoed those of dictators unable to accept defeat. The US looked chaotic for some time.

Globally, elections have been, and will be, chaotic at times.

For chaos, I could look at Israel, in the Middle East. Over recent years, voters in Israel have been to the polls a few times, with nobody either winning a majority of legislative seats or forming a workable alliance with others to govern. This year, another election will occur. Elsewhere in the Middle East, Iran has a presidential election coming, and with the incumbent stepping down, Iranians will have a new leader – though religious clerics will be more powerful than whoever wins the presidency.

I dare say that Israel is more democratic and tolerant than other countries in the Middle East – many of them hating the existence of Israel and eager to destroy it.

It’s worth noting another country whose mere existence affronts its neighbour. That country is Taiwan, in the Asia-Pacific. Across a strait from Taiwan lies China, a country with more people than any other worldwide, but with an undemocratic regime. Last year, a presidential election occurred in Taiwan, and voters returned the incumbent, who doesn’t keenly kowtow to China.

Also in the Asia-Pacific last year, there was an election in New Zealand. Having obtained power through an alliance previously, the Prime Minister won outright this time.

This year, a general election in Japan might be the most significant in the Asia-Pacific.

The election in the US attracted much attention last year, but this year several countries to the south of the US will have presidential elections. Some of these pending elections, in Honduras and Nicaragua, don’t look like being fair, though contests in Ecuador and Peru and Chile might attract more attention.

In Africa, presidential elections last year in both Ghana and Tanzania saw incumbents returned, but opponents complained of rigged votes. This year has already begun with Uganda holding a presidential election, with the incumbent returned and rigged votes alleged. General elections will later occur in two major countries, Ethiopia and Morocco.

In Europe, things seemed uneventful last year. A hung election in Ireland saw centrists align to stop a left-wing party from taking power, and a presidential election in Poland saw a conservative incumbent win narrowly. This year has already begun with Portugal holding a presidential election, won by the incumbent. General elections are due later in the Netherlands and Germany – the latter being significant as this powerful European country will have, for the first time in years, someone different as Chancellor.

These countries show a global election circus continuing year after year. But different players take their turns. The turn for Australia in this circus ring will come soon.

Another MacTiernan switch

25 January 2021

Tides of fortune always turn in politics. I could say as much at this time regarding the Labor Party in Western Australia, where a State election will soon take place. Perhaps only people who live there or follow politics would know what I mean.

Labor won office at the last State election, in 2017, and I’ve seen nothing since then to suggest that Labor could lose the next election. It helps to have a decent parliamentary majority as well. But after the election before last, in 2013, Labor was in very poor shape.

This happened five years after Labor unexpectedly lost office at an election that it arguably shouldn’t have lost. Its loss was also really close, with crossbenchers making it happen.

The unexpected election loss was in 2008. Labor had been in power since winning an election in 2001, and maintained its majority at the next election in 2005. But then things went wrong, even when the alternative side of politics didn’t seem credible.

After losing the 2005 election, the Liberal Party had several leadership changes, and looked shambolic. Eventually the leadership went back to Colin Barnett, who was the beaten leader from 2005 and was intending to retire at the next election.

Although the next election wasn’t due until 2009, Premier Alan Carpenter called the election early, presumably to take advantage of the shambolic condition of the Liberals. But having gone back on an intention to retire, Barnett led the Liberals to a shock win, albeit only after gaining support from crossbenchers who held the balance of power. For a bloke on the verge of retiring in 2008, Barnett would go on to win another election, in his own right.

This was the low point for Labor, that I referred to before. Winning with an absolute majority in 2013, the Liberals took seats off Labor, and a future Labor win seemed remote.

After Labor’s unexpected defeat in WA before, one of its former ministers opted to quit State Parliament and run for Federal Parliament. That person was Alannah MacTiernan.

Considered a popular politician, MacTiernan contested a Federal election in 2010 as the Labor candidate for Canning, which was prominently a regional seat but stretched into the outskirts of the State capital of Perth. At the time, Don Randall was holding the seat for the Liberals.

Eventually, however, local popularity wasn’t enough for MacTiernan, and she lost in Canning.

Three years later, she was in Federal Parliament. She won the safe Labor seat of Perth, which naturally took in the city centre of the capital, after Labor stalwart Stephen Smith retired.

But the time perhaps wasn’t right for MacTiernan. Her election to Federal Parliament came when voters across Australia were tossing Labor out, after several shambolic years, primarily centred on leadership squabbles.

If she’d won Canning in 2010, she’d have probably been able to make a difference. She was competent in her time as a State minister, and with that year’s Federal election leaving Labor governing with the support of crossbenchers, Labor could’ve made use of her. Unfortunately, for both Labor and her, this wasn’t to be. When she ultimately got into Federal Parliament, Labor was out of office and in poor shape.

At the same time, her former State colleagues were also reeling from Barnett’s clear election win just months earlier.

When the next Federal election came, in 2016, MacTiernan called time on her Federal career.

She later returned to State Parliament, and now holds an Upper House seat in northern Perth.

But with the next election coming, there’s another MacTiernan switch taking place. Because some Labor figures had concerns about the ability of another MP to survive the next election, there was a game of switcheroo among MPs. As a result, MacTiernan will be aiming to remain in the Upper House, but by winning a seat in the State’s south-west. Another Labor MP from around there has been dumped to make room for MacTiernan.

Switching seats and political levels seems to have become normal for MacTiernan. Over time she’s made a few switches. Maybe this coming switch will be her last.

Liberals biting the dust

23 January 2021

The Liberal Party will lose one Senator in New South Wales at the next Federal election, whenever it comes. Possibly a second Senator might be gone as well.

Admittedly, the next Federal election isn’t due until about the middle of next year, but many observers predict that it could happen before the end of this year. However, regardless of when it comes, there are currently three Liberal Senators in NSW facing the voters then, and one of them will definitely go.

You might wonder how I could predict this so early, with the election nowhere near being called. Well, I base it on a combination of tradition and fortune.

Traditionally, the Liberals don’t govern without support of the Nationals – hence the Liberal-National Coalition. But that doesn’t stop the Liberals and Nationals from running against each other in some elections. Sometimes you see them both take on the Labor Party for seats in the House of Representatives – hence what observers call “three-cornered contests”. And they’ve often run separate tickets in Senate elections in various States. But in NSW they’ve run together for the Senate on a joint ticket.

The joint Senate ticket in NSW traditionally has the Liberals in first spot, while the Nationals switch between second and third places in elections. At the last election, in 2019, the Nationals had third spot on the ticket, so they’ll probably have second spot on the ticket at the next election. But even if they have third spot again, they’ll get at least of the first three spots. And with three Liberal Senators already there, one of them must give way to a National.

Mind you, I know of past instances where Liberals have joined the Nationals, and vice versa. Indeed back in the 1980s there was an instance in Queensland where two Liberal MPs defected to the Nationals after a State election in which nobody won a majority, following a Coalition split – this enabled the Nationals to govern in their own right. And I recall the Liberals gaining a Senator who defected from the Nationals more than a decade ago. I’m not suggesting that one of the three NSW Liberal Senators facing the voters at the next poll might defect to the Nationals – but politics can be unpredictable!

The Coalition has generally won three Senate seats in NSW, out of six available, at election time. But its vote has never been strong enough to pick up a fourth seat. Therefore, one NSW Liberal Senator is definitely gone.

But third place on the Senate ticket in any State is invariably rated vulnerable for both the Coalition and Labor. Despite a traditionally strong vote in NSW, the Coalition has occasionally won only two Senate seats there, and Coalition Senators in third spot on Senate tickets have been defeated before. That was exactly happened to Senator Chris Puplick, a Liberal, in 1990, and to Senator Sandy Macdonald, a National, in 1998. Therefore, if the Nationals get second spot on the Senate ticket in NSW, the Liberal placed third is vulnerable.

This explains how possibly two NSW Liberals in the Senate will end up biting the dust at the next election. Certainly one of them will be gone, but another one might also go, unless the Nationals get third spot on the Senate ticket.

My tip about a Liberal Senator going also relates to fortune, after past events.

Given that each State has twelve Senators, Federal elections will usually have half of them, meaning six, facing the voters on a rotating basis. Occasionally, however, you get double-dissolution elections, with all twelve Senators from each State facing the voters at once – as happened in 2016.

After the election in 2016, when it came to working out which Senators would face the voters at future elections, there were effectively what I call top and bottom “halves”. Of each State’s twelve Senators, the first six to be declared elected make up the top half, and the last six make up the bottom half. There was an arrangement where Senators in that bottom half would face the voters at the next election, which ultimately came in 2019, while Senators in the top half would face the voters at the election after that, due in 2022.

That 2016 election saw the Coalition take five of twelve Senate seats in NSW, with three of them in the top half. Therefore, they had the 2019 election off, while the next election, whether this year or next year, would be when they faced the voters. Those three consisted of two Liberals and a National.

But the National, Senator Fiona Nash, was among numerous politicians later disqualified from Parliament after a court ruling over dual citizenship. They could not serve as citizens of both Australia and other countries together.

When Senators are disqualified, their seats normally go to the next candidates available on their party’s tickets from the previous election. However, after Nash’s disqualification, the Coalition’s joint Senate ticket in NSW meant that Nash’s seat went to a Liberal, who happened to be the next candidate in line.

This explains why the Liberals now have three NSW Senators facing the voters when the election comes. But one of them, and maybe two, will go. Reluctant departures from the Liberal ranks look likely.