NSW Coalition back in with scars

23 March 2019

 

Voters in New South Wales have been off to polling booths for a general election there today.  Opinion polls suggest that the Liberal-National Coalition, governing the state since winning office comprehensively in 2011, could survive the election but lose its parliamentary majority along the way.  Coming from a very long way behind in recent years, the Labor Party will make up ground, but nowhere near enough for a chance at victory.

At the last election, in 2015, the 93 seats in Parliament went 54-34 to the Coalition over Labor, while a trio of Greens and a pair of Independents won the rest.

Since the 2015 election, the Coalition has lost by-elections in the seats of Orange and Wagga Wagga, trimming its majority slightly.  But neither seat went to Labor, so Labor’s job as of the last election remains unchanged.

In terms of numbers, the loss of six seats will cost the Coalition its majority, but Labor needs to gain thirteen seats to win outright.  Effectively, Labor needs two seats gained for every Coalition seat lost.

Opinion polls of late suggest a swing of about 4-5 per cent against the Coalition, and the Coalition has six seats within that range.  Therefore, a swing of this size would cost the Coalition its majority.

But then there’s a big gap from these six marginal Coalition seats to the seventh seat in line.  This makes the Coalition harder to dislodge.

The most marginal seats for the Coalition are Coogee, East Hills, Lismore, Monaro, Tweed, and Upper Hunter.  Of these seats, Tweed has the largest margin, requiring a swing of about 3.2 per cent to change hands.  But the next seat in line regarding margins is Penrith, which requires a swing of about 6.2 per cent to fall.  Naturally, this gap is no small thing.

Penrith and three other seats require a swing of about 6-7 per cent to fall, namely Goulburn and Holsworthy and Oatley.  If you add these seats to the Coalition seats with smaller margins, Labor would still come up short.

In terms of the condition of NSW, it seems hard to believe that the Coalition could lose today’s election.  The economy is in good shape, and the Coalition has spent big on major projects, including transport infrastructure.  Moreover, Labor has never really looked competitive, and voters might still remember how decrepit and corrupt Labor became before it lost office in 2011.  Labor has also endured leadership problems, with Opposition Leader Michael Daley only recently taking the job on after Luke Foley dramatically resigned amid claims of bad behaviour.

But despite spending big on infrastructure, the Coalition hasn’t really completed what it’s started, and with construction work all over Sydney in particular causing traffic disruptions and other problems, people see the disruption without noticing the perceived benefits to come.  A light rail link in Sydney’s city centre has hurt countless businesses nearby, through its slow construction process.  The Coalition has also suffered from perceptions of indulgence because of plans to demolish major sporting stadiums in Sydney and rebuild them – Labor has been running hard on criticism of these stadium plans, arguing that schools and hospitals have been deprived of funding for upgrading because of spending on these stadiums, and this criticism has certainly created an impression of Coalition arrogance.

The Coalition also has suffered from issues like council mergers and greyhound racing, and much anger looms in rural NSW over water management in drought.

In terms of today’s general election, I note the current 52 seats for the Coalition against the 34 seats for Labor.  And I factor in Orange and Wagga Wagga, which the Coalition lost in by-elections.

I tip Wagga Wagga to stay with Joe McGirr, the Independent candidate who won this seat at a by-election.  I also tip two other Independents elected in 2015, Greg Piper and Alex Greenwich, to hold their seats.

It’s a different story in Orange.  The Coalition lost this seat to a party representing shooters and fishers and farmers at a by-election.  I tip that party to lose Orange, but I also tip it to win another seat from the Coalition, namely the massive rural seat of Barwon, because of the retirement of the sitting Coalition MP.

I’m tipping the Coalition to lose Coogee, East Hills, Goulburn, Lismore, Monaro, Penrith, Tweed, and Upper Hunter to Labor.

Overall, the Coalition should win 44 seats and Labor should win 42, with other seats staying unchanged unless mentioned above.  This will leave the Coalition needing crossbench support to survive, but I think that it’ll get it.

As for the Upper House, the Coalition will be short of a majority, and several minor parties will hold the balance of power there.

I’ve seen elections hung in the past, with governments sometimes getting back, although not always.  It seems to vary from election to election.

The likely result today will be the NSW Coalition getting back in, but it’ll finish short of a majority, leaving it with scars.  Even without a majority, I’m expecting Premier Gladys Berejiklian to remain Premier, though how she deals with this hung reality remains to be seen.  Her ability to negotiate might be tested.

 

Critics of Phelps might save her

18 March 2019

 

Lots of people in the Liberal Party probably rue getting rid of Malcolm Turnbull now.  Actually, many rued it when it happened, but events since then might well have made more of them rue it.  And yet more will do so in time.

Seven months have passed since conservative Liberals, after a very long period of agitation, acted to get rid of Turnbull, whose beliefs on issues such as climate change and same-sex marriage made them highly distrustful of him.  In the eyes of those conservatives, he was something of an intruder.  Even though they were ultimately unable to get a conservative to replace Turnbull as Liberal leader and therefore Prime Minister, his exit would’ve elated them.

But it seems that only of late has it become clear to growing numbers of Liberals, both inside and outside parliamentary ranks, what they lost with Turnbull gone from the leadership.  Turnbull mightn’t have been widely popular within Liberal ranks, but he was arguably quite popular among the voting public – at least more so than his controversial predecessor, Tony Abbott.

Having berated the Labor Party for dumping leaders ahead of elections before voters could deliver verdicts, the Liberals arguably copied the tactic.  But while this might be true, I believe that if they hadn’t dumped Abbott as leader in favour of Turnbull in 2015, they’d have lost an election which came in July 2016 – even though Turnbull only just survived that election.

Despite trailing Labor in opinion polls for some time, Turnbull was still regarded as keeping the Liberals competitive.  After he went, support for the Liberals also went, to some extent.  Certainly in Victoria, where Turnbull was quite popular, the Liberals suffered at a general election which came just months after Turnbull was dumped from the Federal leadership.  Although the Victorian Liberals were far from inspiration to voters, Turnbull’s dumping wouldn’t have helped.  Soon we’ll see if Turnbull’s dumping plays on the minds of voters in New South Wales, where a general election happens in a matter of days.

However, it’s worth remembering what happened soon after Turnbull departed politics.  He survived one leadership challenge, but when another one occurred, he saw this as being dumped from the leadership and quit Parliament.  His close win at the last election, by just two seats, made the Liberal vulnerable if someone other than a Liberal won a by-election to take place in his old seat.

When that by-election ultimately came, the Liberals lost the seat to a well-known Independent candidate, Kerryn Phelps.  This cost the Liberals lost their majority in Parliament, and they needed crossbenchers for support.  Shortly after, Liberal MP Julia Banks walked out and also joined the crossbench.

With crossbenchers holding the balance of power, moves were afoot to change immigration laws, regarding people who attempted entering Australia on leaky boats and ended up in detention centres away from the mainland.

Phelps sought to change these laws, which many Labor MPs had also been trying to do.  Importantly, also seeking change were some crossbenchers – among them Adam Bandt of the Greens, who’d always hated the laws.

Change was subsequently voted for, and the Liberals suffered a defeat of sorts.

They argued that such change would result in more immigration by leaky boats, and undermine the country’s border protection laws.  They’d first taken a hard line on immigration by leaky boats long ago, with the boats then stopping.  When Labor changed the laws, boats started coming again.  The Liberals reverted back to the old laws, and again the boats stopped.  Now, as a result of change brought about by people like Phelps, we might well see if boats start coming again.

That said, while the Liberals might think that they can defeat Phelps in the seat that she won after Turnbull’s downfall, I have doubts.  This is especially so when you consider that supporters of the Liberals, such as media commentators and outlets, have been vocal in their criticism of Phelps.

Turnbull was particularly popular in his seat of Wentworth, in eastern Sydney, and locals were really angry with the Liberals after his downfall.  But for these people, turning to Labor was too much.  However, Phelps appeared a half-decent alternative, and the by-election went her way.  To Wentworth voters, she seemed similar to Turnbull as far as believing in issues like tackling climate change was concerned – regardless of what many Liberals thought of him.  His media critics in particular were intolerant of him on those grounds.

Now Wentworth voters see Turnbull’s critics in pursuit of Phelps.  They’d recall those critics going after their champion, Turnbull, in his day.  Now they’re after Phelps, arguably their new champion, in a similar way.  This makes me believe that the critics of Phelps, far from hurting her, might save her at election time.

The critics don’t know that Phelps doesn’t support things like making wealthier people pay higher taxes and charges, which Labor believes in.  That’s arguably one reason why Wentworth can’t abide Labor, despite Turnbull’s plight.  Labor won’t get sufficient crossbench support for this, so it won’t be tested, and Phelps won’t be seen clearly opposing Labor.

Phelps supports the Liberals on many issues.  But her critics dishonestly portray her as a Labor stooge.  Voters in Wentworth will probably know this.