23 March 2024
Voters in Tasmania might see no change tonight, or even after a number of days. Then again, they might see change, despite some expectations to the contrary. It all depends on what comes out of a State election happening today.
After a period of instability, stemming from the exit of two people to the crossbench, the Liberal Party has sent Tasmanians to the polls for a snap election, more than a year earlier than due. It has governed in Tasmanian for ten years, and after scoring its third election win in a row in May 2021, it now seeks a fourth straight term in power. And the Labor Party, which last won an election sixteen years ago, seeks to stop it.
This election will see at least one different thing – an increase in the number of MPs.
Before this election, there were 25 MPs, but this tally will rise to 35. With MPs elected through winning only a proportion of votes in their electorates, rather than a majority, they will need about 12.5 per cent of votes to win seats, whereas until now they needed about 16.7 per cent of votes. This will likely get more crossbenchers elected.
In terms of election issues, the Liberals face difficulties. They’ve been governing quite well in Tasmania for most of the last ten years, but while the State economy performed strongly for much of that time, it’s not as healthy now. There’s also been a good deal of trouble in areas like health and housing. Additionally, there’s been drama over plans for a new football stadium close to central Hobart, with the Liberals firmly committing to it, despite doubts about whether most Tasmanians supported it. The Liberals look like they’ve lost many voters, especially outside Hobart, because of it, and two Liberal MPs cited it as a factor in their departures to the crossbench.
Regardless of issues, however, it’s long been typical for governments of any political colour to really battle when seeking a third straight term in power – or a fourth straight term. That’s what the Liberals face in Tasmania now.
But despite the challenges confronting the Liberals, Labor doesn’t look anywhere near able to take advantage of them. It’s been struggling with issues of its own, especially internal ones, which resulted in one MP going to the crossbench. As a result, it looks incapable of winning over enough voters to really threaten.
Its last years in office, before 2014, saw it governing only in an alliance with the Greens, and voters outside Hobart in particular ended up revolting against the alliance. They really resented the Greens, who were perceived to hate the jobs that they did. Labor really upset them when it got close to the Greens. It’s possible that they still remember that alliance. If so, it’ll be troublesome for Labor, but the Greens should still do pretty well around Hobart, and possibly Launceston.
As for others, meaning Independents and the party of feisty Tasmanian Senator Jacqui Lambie, they look like drawing support from voters who’ve become really disillusioned with the Liberals and Labor. But that support mightn’t translate into many new seats, unless they’re really popular at a local level – and ideally beyond there. Lambie herself isn’t as popular as she seems, with good support only in parts of Tasmania, and unless she’s got candidates that voters really know and like, her party won’t win much.
Opinion polls suggest a swing of 10 per cent or higher against the Liberals, but Labor won’t gain too much of that swing, and the Greens won’t benefit much either. Others look like being the main beneficiaries, but the swing mightn’t equal lots of seats.
Tasmania has five electorates, with seven seats available in each. The electorates are Bass in the State’s north-east, Braddon in the State’s west, Clark in the central Hobart area, Franklin in the area surrounding Hobart, and Lyons in the State’s centre and east.
I predict the Liberals to win fifteen seats – two in Clark, four in Braddon, and three each in Bass and Franklin and Lyons. They should end up with more seats than anyone else, but not enough for a majority. I tip Labor to win thirteen seats – two in Braddon and two in Franklin and three each in the other electorates. The Greens should win four seats, with two of them in Franklin and one in Clark and one in Bass. An Independent should win in Clark, and Lambie’s party should win a seat each in Braddon and Lyons.
Liberal leader Jeremy Rockliff, who became Premier two years ago after the resignation of the immensely popular Peter Gutwein, looks to be in the best position for crossbench support to govern. However, I feel that Opposition Leader Rebecca White has a chance, because Labor usually wins crossbench support more easily than the Liberals, and the likely crossbenchers will probably favour Labor over the Liberals. This might be a case of “third time lucky” for White, who was Labor leader for the previous two elections.
This election sees Tasmania changing but possibly staying the same as a result. While the change will be extra MPs elected, the current position of nobody holding a majority will stay the same. Perhaps Tasmanian voters can only pray for stability.
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