21 April 2019
Relatively few voters across Australia look forward to a Federal election with little or no reason to support the leaders vying to become Prime Minister. The person currently in the job is unpopular, but so is the person seeking the job. Meanwhile, a wealthy tycoon spends a massive fortune on commercials to persuade unhappy voters to support his own political party.
Actually, I’m being cheeky here! This isn’t a description of a Federal election just about upon Australians – though it could well be.
The above description refers to an election in 2013, which was the election before last. The players back then might well be different from now, but the story really sounds like what it is now. The only player from 2013 definitely back now is the wealthy tycoon, Clive Palmer, whose party has been in commercials on television and on radio and in newspapers for many months.
Back in 2013, the Prime Minister and the Opposition Leader were both unpopular, to the point where they almost made voters have another look at the alternative leader. Also, the PM at the start of 2013 was different from the PM who contested the election that year, and ultimately lost.
Before then, the Labor Party had won office in 2007, and Kevin Rudd was hugely popular as Prime Minister for more than two years. But in 2010, Rudd chickened out of pursuing an environmental policy intended to reduce pollution and tackle climate change, and his popularity went into massive freefall. In June that year, Labor MPs suddenly dumped Rudd in a surprise coup, and Julia Gillard became Prime Minister. Because voters were never really told why the coup was thought necessary in the eyes of Labor MPs, they revolted at an election just months later.
Rudd’s backdown on tackling climate change resulted from a big scare campaign conducted by Opposition Leader Tony Abbott – one of the most unpopular political figures in Australian history. Abbott argued that Rudd’s environmental policies equated to a “new tax on everything”, and spooked Rudd into backing down.
After Rudd was dumped in favour of Gillard, Labor lost its majority at an election, surviving only with the help of crossbench MPs holding the balance of power.
Abbott and his supporters never accepted the legitimacy of this result, and they tried whatever they could to either trigger new elections or force the crossbench MPs to tip Labor out of office. Despite Abbott’s best efforts, Labor somehow made it to 2013, when the next election was due.
Indeed Abbott stooped to major lows in terms of tactics and behaviour through those years as Opposition Leader – from addressing a protest rally with placards showing offensive language against the PM, to gleefully rising in Parliament and repeating a disgusting slur made against the PM’s late father.
Such awful behaviour, under the circumstances, should’ve disqualified Abbott from any chance to be PM. But he got there, largely because Labor had an endless leadership squabble involving Rudd and Gillard which rendered it unelectable.
In June 2013, Labor MPs reluctantly restored Rudd to the leadership, and Gillard retired from politics. But Rudd’s restoration ultimately didn’t stop Abbott from becoming PM, despite Abbott’s own unpopularity with voters.
Meanwhile, sensing that voters were disillusioned with Labor and Abbott, from almost out of nowhere came a political party, set up by Palmer, whose massive wealth enabled it to run ads during the election campaign – an option normally too costly for minor parties in general. Palmer banked on the idea that voters, unhappy with the major political leaders but hardly able or willing to look that closely for alternatives, would go to the polling booths at election time recalling only him as neither Labor nor Abbott, and vote for his party.
To some extent, Palmer’s efforts succeeded. His party won enough voters across several states to win three Senate seats. Palmer himself only just won a Lower House seat as well. But after getting into Federal Parliament, his party imploded and he walked away when the next election came, in 2016.
Meanwhile, after Abbott became PM, he remained immensely unpopular among voters, and he lost the leadership to Malcolm Turnbull, who was initially quite popular. But Turnbull became weak when many of his MPs opposed his beliefs regarding various issues, including climate change. Turnbull only won the 2016 election, and his enemies circled until, in August 2018, they were able to get him dumped. Scott Morrison ended up becoming PM as a result.
Because Turnbull was considered popular, Morrison and the Liberal-National Coalition have since struggled to be popular with voters, even though Opposition Leader Bill Shorten has also been unpopular. But Shorten looks like he’ll triumph at the next election, because of voter anger over Turnbull’s dumping.
And again, Palmer lurks in the background, returning with a new party to contest the election. He’s also been able to run ads for months, at some expense.
Voters wouldn’t have been keen in 2013 to face an election with two bad leaders and a tycoon to choose from, notwithstanding other alternatives. But they now face going through 2013 all over again when they head to the booths soon.
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