11 December 2023
The recent death of Federal MP Peta Murphy, after a battle with cancer, means that voters to the south-east of Melbourne face a by-election early next year. The by-election will take place in the seat of Dunkley, which Murphy won for the Labor Party in 2019, taking the seat out of the hands of the Liberal Party for the first time in over two decades.
When voters are dissatisfied with governments, by-elections often allow them to lay off some steam and send a message – which governments sometimes fail to heed. However, when by-elections result after MPs die or resign because of illness, there is perhaps less eagerness to revolt. Although not unprecedented, by-elections resulting from untimely deaths or health-induced resignations rarely result in seats changing hands.
Senator Lidia Thorpe knows a bit about by-elections making seats change hands. Before entering the Senate, Thorpe ran for the Greens in a State by-election in inner Melbourne after the death of Labor MP Fiona Richardson. Certainly I was surprised at the time, given the circumstances of the by-election. It suggested that either Thorpe was an incredible candidate or support for the Greens was really surging. But I was surprised again when Thorpe lost the seat at the next State election, with Labor regaining it. Again, this stuff happened before Thorpe entered the Senate – and later fell out with the Greens.
Going back to Dunkley, I don’t really see it changing hands. For sure, voters nationwide aren’t that satisfied with the Albanese Labor Government at the moment. But the Liberals haven’t done much to appeal to voters, at least until recently. Labor had looked pretty popular for much of the year, but various issues have made it appear distracted. Voters increasingly see it as doing little to address economic issues, particularly the increasing costs of things like food and electricity and petrol and home payments. In spite of this, voters in Dunkley know that the pending by-election’s circumstances are tragic, and they might be tempted to restrain their anger a little.
Dunkley itself has an interesting history. Taking in Frankston, which lies along the fringe of Melbourne’s south-east, Dunkley first emerged in an electoral redistribution preceding a Federal election in 1984. Labor MP Bob Chynoweth was the first person to win Dunkley, after switching from nearby Flinders. He won Flinders in an election the previous year.
He held Dunkley in 1987, lost it to the Liberals in 1990, and regained it in 1993.
But in 1996, he was among many Labor MPs to be swept away in a big swing nationwide against Labor, as voters absolutely chucked out the Keating Labor Government. Among the Labor casualties then were eight ministers.
Defeating Chynoweth in 1996 was Liberal candidate Bruce Billson. He went on to hold Dunkley for twenty years. Clearly he was very effective as a local MP, as he held his seat despite overall swings against the Liberals on several occasions. Without him, Dunkley would’ve likely changed hands. He retired in 2016, and the Liberals retained the seat.
But before the next election, in 2019, an electoral redistribution made Dunkley notionally a Labor seat. While the Liberals won the election overall, Labor candidate Murphy won Dunkley. In so doing, she became the first woman to win the seat, and the second Labor person to win the seat. She increased her majority in the seat when voters next headed off to the polls, in May last year, so Labor had a margin of 6-7 per cent over the Liberals.
With her death, both Labor and the Liberals might’ve put aside the brutality that voters have seen from them of late. But both Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton face challenges in the by-election resulting from her death.
As such, because the by-election mightn’t happen for possibly two months, the putting aside of the usual political nastiness might only be brief. As the by-election gets closer, the major parties would, I suspect, turn up the heat on each other. Therefore, the tears over Murphy’s death looks like making politics only temporarily pause.
A small swing against either Labor or the Liberals won’t make too much difference, with voters perhaps restraining their anger out of respect for Murphy. But a big swing against Labor will embolden Dutton, who’s hardly looked like an inspiring leader. On the other hand, a big swing against the Liberals will be a relief for Albanese.
Moreover, people forget that while last year’s election saw a swing against the Liberals, there were actually swings against Labor in many seats, especially in some outer suburban regions. Dunkley is the kind of seat which could, potentially, swing against Labor when the next election comes, and the Liberals might run hard in it.
The pending by-election looks like showing whether voters think of both mobs.
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