29 September 2018
The Liberal Party has come through a month of anniversaries just after seeing off its leader in controversial circumstances. This month marks five years since the Liberals took power in a Federal election, in September 2013, and also three years since changing leaders, from Tony Abbott to Malcolm Turnbull. Late last month, just shy of three years as Liberal leader and Prime Minister, Turnbull survived a leadership challenge from a senior minister but resigned just days later with the calling of another leadership vote, and Scott Morrison came away with the top job.
Since stepping down as leader, Turnbull has since resigned from Parliament, and a by-election will soon take place in his seat of Wentworth, in the eastern suburbs of Sydney, which includes some expensive and exclusive areas.
But how many people remember another Liberal leadership drama which took place just months before Turnbull beat Abbott in a challenge? It was September 2015 when Turnbull challenged Abbott for the top job, citing Abbott’s massive unpopularity and inability to get public support for various policies, and won fairly comfortably. This challenge, though, came months after Abbott survived an unexpected leadership spill motion, albeit without a challenger. How could this sort of thing happen?
Abbott had led the Liberals to an election win in 2013, but this didn’t happen because of voters enthusiastically backing him. Indeed he’d been immensely unpopular as Liberal leader before that 2013 win. As Prime Minister following that win, he continued to remain unpopular. Sometimes you have to wonder how so unpopular a person as Abbott could ever become Prime Minister.
The main reason for Abbott’s win was a massive state of disarray and infighting within the Labor Party. Kevin Rudd had led Labor to an election win in 2007, and was immensely popular among voters, but Labor MPs privately detested him. When he backed down on a major environmental policy in 2010, largely due to a scare campaign run by the Liberals, his popularity dropped off, and Labor MPs used this as an excuse to dump him as leader. Rudd seethed and went on to undermine the new Labor leader, Julia Gillard, over the following three years, until Labor MPs relented and dumped her in favour of him. This infighting, coupled with troublesome policies, led to Abbott’s 2013 victory.
Ultimately, however, with both Gillard and Rudd having chosen to walk away from politics, voters forgot about Labor’s troubles and remembered how much they hated Abbott. This unpopularity continued for well over a year.
By February 2015, many Liberal MPs were fed up with Abbott, and they called for a leadership spill. But though they moved for a spill, nobody was actually looking to challenge Abbott for the leadership. In the end, the spill never came, with a small majority of Liberal MPs voting against it.
What does that situation tell you? It’s definitely unusual to think of a leader facing a leadership challenge without an actual challenger. But that was what Abbott faced in February 2015. Even though nobody was actually challenging him for the leadership, a large proportion of his MPs possibly preferred any other person but him as leader.
This challenge from a “ghost”, if I could put it that way, came back to my mind earlier this month, when I read about Abbott surviving an apparent challenge regarding preselection for his seat of Warringah, in northern Sydney.
Abbott was the only person who stood for Liberal preselection in Warringah, meaning the only person seeking the right to be the Liberal candidate in that seat when the next election comes. In those circumstances, you must wonder why a preselection vote even occurred. But even with no challenger, perhaps like having a ghost running, apparently a large proportion of Liberal branch members in Warringah preferred an alternative to Abbott.
What good is a vote for an alternative when one doesn’t exist? Beyond maybe sending a message, if possible, a non-existent alternative can’t win a vote.
These ghost votes, such as the failed spill against Abbott in 2015 and a challenge from nobody in Warringah now, can’t actually end careers. I’d hardly consider them dangerous. While Abbott probably isn’t at risk of losing his seat to Labor, perhaps a well-known Independent candidate could beat him – but someone must be willing to stand up and take him on. Politicians can’t lose to ghosts.
electiontragic 